Monday, January 14, 2008

Happy(?) New Year!

A bit late--unless you are following the old-style Russian calendar*, which is exactly two weeks behind the modern calendar and would make today the first day of the year--but HAPPY NEW YEAR! Of course, it remains to be seen how the year will actually turn out: Will it be happy or will it be dismal? Check back in about 11.5 months.

This is the time of year when tradition dictates that predictions be made for the next twelve months. I really have none of my own, save for one. This year I predict that one of the presidential candidates somewhere, sometime, will actually say something logical, intelligent, and harmonious with reality, but then be pilloried for it by the press and public and quickly retract it. This does not include Ron Paul, a Libertarian in Republican clothing, who is 180 degrees opposite any other candidate and always in tune with reality.

To quickly recap some of the 2008 predictions of others I agree with, I'll start with these: Oil's price per barrel will bounce around, but it will hit $125 to $150 per barrel ($4+ per gallon at the pump). We'll experience a recession this year (we may already be in one). The federal reserve will vastly inflate the money supply to pull the economy out of the doldrums, thereby fueling inflation and enabling Wall Street to hit record on-paper highs. 2008 will see Obama-Hillary or Hillary-Obama ticket slide into the White House, however, they will only reside there for one term. Why? Because the next few years are going to see some hard economic times and the White House occupants will get the blame. So, in the long run, the party who loses this election will actually be winners, of sorts. (I say of sorts because, to me, both of these parties are losers for so many reasons that I won't delve into now.) Gold will go over $1000/ounce, silver will top $25/ounce. I suppose that's enough for now.

Take care.
*Side note: This difference in calendars actually had a profound effect on history. Although the exact year escapes me, Napoleon won a battle that almost assuredly he would have lost had his enemies been using the same calendar. In concert with other Napoleonic foes, Russia was to attack the French dictator at a set time and date. The battle plans were drawn up, dates set, and everything was agreed upon. Somehow, though, the calendaric differences between the allies was overlooked and the Russian army showed up for battle two weeks after Napoleon triumphed. Doh!

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